COVID-19 pandemic and tourism: the impact of health risk perception and intolerance of uncertainty on travel intentions

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Understanding tourist behavior during and after major tourism crises is essential to help destinations recover. The COVID-19 pandemic — a period of uncertainty and risk — makes it relevant to assess factors that influence travel intentions. There has been little research on tourist behavior during health crises and, in particular, on perceived health risk and uncertainty effects on travel intentions. This study was carried out at the beginning of the pandemic in Brazil and aims to investigate the role of health risk perception and intolerance of uncertainty on travel intentions for 2020 and 2021. We applied an online survey to 1150 Brazilian participants from April to May 2020. Our findings indicate that perceived COVID-19 severity, perceived probability of infection, and expected duration of the pandemic are significant predictors of travel intentions for both years. This paper contributes to a deeper understanding of crisis-resistant tourists’ characteristics and provides insights for destinations’ recovery.